Tensions in Iran and its neighboring regions appear to be easing, as indicated by US President Donald Trump, who is now seeking a way out of the conflict. The ongoing conflict has incurred substantial costs for both the US and Israel in terms of military resources and maintenance of naval assets in the Arabian Sea, yet the Iranian regime remains intact.
By considering ending the war now to potentially boost financial markets, it seems that Iran’s strategy of outlasting the coalition and posing a threat to draw the Gulf States into a costly and prolonged conflict has been effective. Although Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly weakened, its leadership has become more resolute and uncompromising.
Motjaba Khamenei, 56, has taken over from his deceased father, Ayatollah Khamenei, and has close affiliations with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Trump’s inconsistent messaging has exposed his lack of foresight in initiating the war.
Despite initial promises of support to opposition groups, little assistance has materialized, leaving protesters vulnerable to potential crackdowns by security forces if the war ends. It is unlikely that the US will deploy ground troops for regime change, leaving the opposition to face the regime alone.
Trump has issued strong warnings to Iran, threatening severe consequences if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. However, the conflict has not achieved its objectives, with Iran’s military infrastructure damaged but not completely destroyed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed support for the Iranian opposition but acknowledges the challenges of replacing the regime without ground forces. The conflict has inflicted significant losses on both Israel and the US without achieving their desired regime change.
While talks of ending the war persist, attacks on military targets continue unabated, indicating a prolonged conflict ahead. Trump’s contemplation of withdrawing from the war suggests a potential long-term cycle of conflict and retaliation.