Russia’s oil exports via the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s figures by nearly 50%, with around 20 million barrels shipped to Asia from July to mid-October, according to traders and data. The NSR connects Russia’s western ports to Asian markets through icy Arctic waters, offering an alternative route due to disruptions in other key shipping lanes like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz.
Increased demand for alternative routes arose as conflicts in regions like Iran and Ukraine impacted traditional shipping routes, leading to a surge in tanker freight rates. This situation, coupled with challenges accessing U.S. crude oil, prompted Asian refiners to turn to sources in the Middle East and Latin America, making the NSR more financially viable despite the high tariffs and the need for icebreaker assistance.
For Russia, which oversees the NSR, the route offers a secure option compared to European waters where oil tankers have faced detainment issues this year. Traders estimate that the volume of Russian oil shipped through the Arctic route will further increase by 5 to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Gazprom Neft, a major Russian oil company, plans to boost its NSR shipments by approximately 35% this year compared to 2025. Additionally, Russia is set to increase its liquid natural gas (LNG) exports to Asia through the NSR, with expectations for a rise in LNG supply following the commencement of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia anticipates doubling cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The recent opening of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has already contributed to the escalating volumes transported via the NSR.