Australian researchers have developed the world’s inaugural public tool for assessing the climate impact of fossil fuel projects, with a Canadian offshore oil initiative serving as the initial test case. The new Carbon Impacts Tracer can forecast how proposed ventures like mines, offshore oil platforms, or other energy undertakings will contribute to global warming, glacier retreat, and potential human fatalities, according to researchers.
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, stated during a virtual press event that the tool can connect the emissions from individual fossil fuel projects to their warming effect on the planet, leading to specific consequences of that warming.
The online tool utilizes a project’s anticipated carbon dioxide emission data, usually sourced from the proponents’ environmental assessment submissions, to determine its influence on the global temperature increase. It then incorporates findings from peer-reviewed studies to evaluate the practical repercussions of this temperature rise, such as coral reef depletion, declines in food production, and job cuts.
The platform was launched with case studies on five Australian projects, one in the U.K., and the proposed Bay du Nord offshore oil project, which would be Canada’s inaugural deepwater oil development, situated approximately 500 kilometers east of St. John’s.
The Bay du Nord project, spearheaded by Equinor, a Norwegian energy company, is projected to tap into over 430 million barrels of oil reserves. The tool estimates that CO2 emissions from Bay du Nord could reach 188 megatonnes over two decades, resulting in a minimal 0.00008°C rise in global temperatures.
Moreover, the tool forecasts that this amount of CO2 could expose more than 111,000 individuals to extreme heat and lead to 25 heat-related fatalities in Europe alone. It further suggests that Bay du Nord might trigger a 4.6-square-kilometer glacier loss, elevating sea levels by 0.025 millimeters. Additionally, around 2,100 jobs could be lost due to pollution from the project, pushing nearly 9,800 people into severe poverty.
Equinor did not provide an immediate response to requests for comment on Monday. Joel Finnis, a climatologist at Memorial University in Newfoundland and Labrador, emphasized the tool’s significance in consolidating various research outcomes into an accessible format for the general public.
Maria Nawaz, heading the climate change accountability project at the University of New South Wales’ Australian Human Rights Institute, highlighted the historical challenge of linking fossil fuel projects to their real-world impacts. She anticipates that the tracer tool will enhance climate litigation efforts aimed at holding governments and corporations responsible for their emissions.
The tool is expected to be utilized by governments, regulators, and the public to evaluate proposed projects in their regions. It could also assist insurers in assessing project risk and economists in forecasting economic impacts. The site presently focuses on prospective ventures, with plans to include more proposed developments as additional data becomes accessible.