U.S. President Donald Trump has raised the idea of potentially halting diesel exports to alleviate gas prices for Americans, a proposal that experts say could further strain the global diesel market, leading to increased diesel costs in Canada and elsewhere.
Speaking during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the UN General Assembly, Trump mentioned his suggestion to halt diesel exports. He highlighted the impact this move could have on gasoline prices given the substantial diesel production in the U.S. The consideration comes at a time when Republicans are under pressure regarding gas prices ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that Washington is exploring the feasibility of a potential ban, a White House official refuted a claim by Politico that the U.S. is actively preparing for a 90-day ban on diesel exports. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright also clarified that a total ban is not under consideration at present.
The proposal emerges against a backdrop of already soaring diesel prices, attributed to geopolitical tensions in Iran and Ukraine. In Canada, diesel prices have exceeded $2 per litre for the past 12 weeks, reaching $2.66 per litre as of Thursday, marking a significant year-over-year increase.
Similarly, in the U.S., diesel prices have surged to over $6.50 per gallon, a sharp rise from the previous year’s average of $3.69 per gallon, according to the American Automobile Association. Experts caution that a U.S. ban on diesel exports could disrupt the global market, driving up prices worldwide.
Joe Calnan, Vice President of Energy at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, criticized the proposed ban as a misguided policy that fails to address the current challenges. He explained that the U.S. exports around 1.5 million barrels of diesel per day, primarily to Latin America and Western Europe, and abruptly halting these exports would have far-reaching repercussions on global prices.
An analysis by U.K.-based analytics group Wood Mackenzie highlighted Europe’s vulnerability to a potential U.S. diesel export ban, given the region’s increasing reliance on U.S. diesel exports, which surged to 50% in September from a 30% average in 2025.
The impact of such a ban would extend to Canada, exacerbating existing issues, particularly in sectors reliant on diesel for operations. Farmers, already grappling with high diesel prices, would face further challenges during the harvest season. Despite potential price impacts, experts note that Canada is a net exporter of diesel and could manage without U.S. imports, albeit with pricing implications.
Geopolitical tensions, including the conflict with Iran and disruptions in key supply routes, have significantly contributed to the surge in diesel prices globally. The ongoing conflicts, along with Russia’s prolonged ban on diesel exports amid its conflict with Ukraine, have reduced refining capacity by an estimated seven million barrels per day, exerting upward pressure on prices.
While a temporary measure to retain U.S. diesel domestically may initially benefit American consumers, experts caution that it could lead to increased costs in the long run. Refineries may need to adjust production levels to prevent a surplus, potentially impacting gasoline prices and overall market dynamics.